By the end of 2027, over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled due to escalating costs, insufficient business value, or inadequate risk controls, according to a new forecast by Gartner, Inc. The findings reflect growing skepticism around the real-world viability of agentic AI as organizations struggle to transition from experimentation to scaled deployment.
“Most agentic AI projects right now are early-stage experiments or proofs of concept that are mostly driven by hype and are often misapplied,” said Anushree Verma, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner. “This can blind organizations to the real cost and complexity of deploying AI agents at scale.”
A January 2025 Gartner poll of over 3,400 webinar attendees found that:
- 19% had made significant investments in agentic AI
- 42% made conservative investments
- 8% had made no investments
- 31% were unsure or waiting to assess the landscape
“Agent washing” — the practice of rebranding traditional tools like chatbots or RPA systems as agentic AI — is also compounding the confusion. Gartner estimates that only around 130 vendors globally offer true agentic AI capabilities, despite a surge in marketing claims.
“Most agentic AI propositions lack significant value or return on investment (ROI), as current models don’t have the maturity and agency to autonomously achieve complex business goals,” Verma explained.
Despite this sobering outlook, Gartner maintains that agentic AI holds long-term promise, predicting that:
- 15% of day-to-day work decisions will be made autonomously by 2028 (up from 0% in 2024)
- 33% of enterprise software applications will integrate agentic AI by 2028
However, Gartner urges businesses to focus on measurable productivity gains and to resist chasing trends without strategic alignment. The firm advises companies to use agents for decision-making, automation for routine workflows, and assistants for simple information retrieval — emphasizing business outcomes in cost, quality, speed, and scale.
“Organizations must cut through the hype,” said Verma. “To get real value, the focus must shift from augmenting individual tasks to driving enterprise-wide transformation.”
