Abu Dhabi Week sits down with weatherman Mike Boyce to get the low down on sunny days, weather farming and his brand new baby girl

The last couple of months have been slow for Mike Boyce, weather forecaster for the Abu Dhabi Airports Company (ADAC), but that’s not always the case for this proud new father.

“We supply aviation forecasts to all the pilots and airlines operating out of Abu Dhabi, Al Ain and Bateen,” says the Canadian national. “I’m responsible for a certain area around the air fields so if anything is coming towards us in terms of thunderstorms, dust storms, sand storms or anything else that would hamper operations at the airport, we try and give them a leeway of at least four hours notice.”

Using satellite and radar, Mike and the team keep a constant eye on weather patterns to estimate what is in store for the capital’s major airports.

“We run models throughout the day that show us how everything is changing – temperature, dew point, winds – and we use those models and changes to make our forecast.”

Though the weatherman is usually saddled with the blame when his predictions are wrong, most mistakes are down to the maths involved.

“The models we use run on mathematical equations with associated errors that multiply with time. For the first 48 hours, we’re about 90 percent accurate but that percentage will decrease the further into the future we predict. Beyond 48 hours, we forecast trends – are the winds going to increase? Is the temperature going to warm up? We ask if it’s going to be sunny, but 99 percent of the time it is.”

Though most of us dread the scorching heat of summer, Mike says that in terms of active weather that affects visibility, the winter months are most dangerous.

“We mainly watch out for fog, dust storms and sand storms. Fog can cause zero visibility and that’s usually worst from November until March – that’s also when dust storms are the worst. Sand storms can happen anytime, and they can also cause really low visibility – maybe 200 to 300 metres.”

The only active weather Mike really isn’t worried about is thunderstorms – unless there’s associated wind gusts and wind sheer for the aircraft – because modern airplanes are built to withstand lightening. In fact, the only reason the airports need to know if it’s going to rain is so that they can be prepared to cover the baggage.

So what’s a typical day for the guy with – what his mates call – the easiest job in Abu Dhabi? Longer than you might think.

6am: Looking forward to a day shift, Mike wakes up and takes a peek out his lounge room window towards the nearby Corniche. “I always check the window just to see what’s going on with the weather – it’s just a habit. Nine times out of ten, it’s sunny but if there’s something like fog or a dust storm I’ll say one of two things – either ‘I got that forecast right’ or ‘where did that come from?’”

7.30am: Mike arrives at the Abu Dhabi International Airport where he parks and gets a ride to his office which is opposite the fire station – almost directly on the runways and right next to the met farm.

“The met farm is a square of about ten metres by ten metres with different instruments spread throughout it that gather temperature sensing data, wind sensing data – everything that collects all the important weather information.”

8am: Settled in for the day, Mike starts with the models.

“The first thing I do is check out what’s happened across the country in the last 12 hours. Then I check the models to see what they’re forecasting for the next 24 to 36 hours. Our forecast goes out for the airfield for the next 30 hours, and the public can also access our forecasts at www.weather.adac.ae.”

9am: By now, any warnings for the day have already been issued. This morning the skies are clear, but on a busy day – one of those foggy winter mornings – Mike’s phone will be ringing off the hook.

“If there’s fog in the morning, I’m usually dealing with phone calls from air traffic control, pilots and airlines asking when it’s going to lift. In Abu Dhabi, the fog will roll in around 2am or 3am which is right about the same time the airport is most busy. Once it’s here, the fog usually doesn’t clear until 9am or 9.30am when the sun burns it off.”

10am: It’s time for a coffee break and then the local area forecast.

“Every six hours, we supply a graphical interpretation of the entire lower Gulf region for the airlines as well as the helicopters that fly out of the airport. This forecast covers from Al Ain up through Ras Al Khaimah and Doha up to about 10,000 feet plus any inclement weather in that range.”

12pm: Lunch can be a struggle for Mike because once his shift begins, he must maintain a weather watch for 12 hours and can’t leave the building – other than packing food, his only options to order in are fast food. The upside, however, is that those long shifts give Mike plenty of time off to spend with his gorgeous new daughter Abigail who is only nine weeks old.

2pm: “The afternoon is basically a repeat of the morning – we issue the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast and the Local Area Forecast, and then we maintain a weather watch and issue any warnings that need to be issued again.”

Though Mike is tucked away in his office, he swears that in terms of weather, between two and three in the afternoon is perhaps the best time to go out for a walk on the Corniche – provided you bring plenty of water along.

“Throughout the year, the direction of the wind shifts every day. At night the wind blows from across the land but in the early afternoon, the water is cooler than the land so the breeze shifts.

“The best time of day is when the wind starts to blow in from the sea but before the humidity kicks in.”

7.30pm: At the end of his shift, Mike briefs the incoming forecaster about what’s happened throughout the day and what they’re expecting in the coming hours – they’ll maintain the watch for the next 12 hours until Mike returns to do it all over again tomorrow.

8.30pm: Finally home for the night, Mike says hello to Abigail and his wife Shawnah and sits down for some dinner before going to bed at 9.30pm – it’s less than 12 hours till his next shift.

Final thoughts: “I used to spend my days off playing golf and the Xbox, but now my days off are spent with Abby, feeding her, changing her, playing with her – oh, and we’re working on counting to ten.”

Laura Fulton